With the UK General Election taking place one week from today, we’re looking at which party is best for the property market. Join us as we tally the scores ahead of the election…
With the UK General Election set for the 4 July (next week!) there has been nonstop coverage of suggested policies, debates, and interviews on all networks. Wading through all this content to try and decide who to vote for can be taxing, especially if you’re interested in the UK property market.
Property is a huge swing for many voters be they first-time buyers, landlords with a portfolio of properties, or developers monitoring the market. And it’s easy to see why when “50% of Britain’s personal wealth cemented in bricks and mortar”, a short supply of new homes, the wreck of Liz Truss’ mini-budget, and rising rent prices, choosing who leads the country can often be decided by who is going to help you get on the property ladder. To this end, we’re going to look at the current climate of feelings around the two historical major parties (the Conservatives and Labour) and how they have managed in previous years to see which party may be the best for your interests.
Who has the best track record? Labour or Conservatives
To start off, we’re going to look at the past tenures of both parties. This research from GetAgent is invaluable in understanding the real changes seen in the past few years and gleans some fascinating findings across England and Wales.
House Price Changes
This data was organised by the constituency (and the local party of the area) to understand where we’ve seen the biggest winners and losers. Surprisingly, we see only a slight difference between Conservatives and Labour with Conservative constituencies seeing an increase of 5.3% between 2017 and 2019. Labour saw a 5.1% increase in their constituencies with smaller parties (with the exception of the Lib Dems) scoring 4.9%. The Liberal Democrat constituencies saw the smallest growth by percentage with a much smaller figure of 3.3%.
House Price Growth
These overall figures, however, are skewed by outliers with Labour holding 14 of the Top 20 constituencies including the top five constituencies by house growth. This is tempered by Labour also holding 11 of the Bottom 20 constituencies.
Top 5:
Constituency | Party | Change / growth (June 2017 – now) |
Birmingham Ladywood | Lab | 23.3% |
Leicester South | Lab | 21.0% |
Brent North | Lab | 19.5% |
Sedgefield | Lab | 18.2% |
Barnsley Central | Lab | 18.2% |
Bottom 5:
Constituency | Party | Change / Growth (June 2017 – Now) |
Cities of London and Westminster | Con | -10.8% |
Hornsey and Wood Green | Lab | -8.5% |
Lancaster and Fleetwood | Lab | -6.9% |
Richmond Park | Con | -6.3% |
Putney | Other | -6.1% |
This leads to some interesting questions as it seems Labour has shown the most growth. However, the Cities of London and Westminster constituency does cover properties of a higher value on average so the loss seen over COVID and a general drop in London’s appeal has had a significant impact on the success of Conservative constituencies overall.
Overall, the Conservatives just edge it by 0.2% but constituencies up and down the country have been affected by a range of factors so wherever possible, we would recommend investigating your constituency’s success to see if your local MP has had a net positive or negative effect on your property’s value. One of the best ways to do this is speak to an expert or get a valuation or survey. These services are provided by local experts at Watsons and can be tailored to your specific needs.
Homes Built
This research also includes a study of the total number of homes built under each administration, going back to 2010 and this also makes for some interesting reading as new homes entering the market have a profound effect on housing stock and valuations.
Conservatives
Overall, the Conservatives have started fewer homes than Labour with a total of 1,241,137 homes. This trails Labour by more than 100,000. Additionally, Conservatives completed fewer homes too, despite starting less, completing 1,211,230 homes.
Labour
As for Labour, they both started more homes, 1,354,897 and completed 10.4% more with 1,337,270 across every region of England. This comprehensive victory is made more interesting by the fact that Labour built more homes for the private sector (86.7% of the homes built were for private buyers), and built homes across every region of the country.
Conservatives, by comparison, focused much more on the South delivering more private homes in London, the only area where they beat Labour. Despite this, it may be surprising to learn that the Conservatives were more committed to homes for local authorities and housing associations showing a more varied approach to Labour’s private sector focus.
The Final Score
All in all, it seems that Labour have proven to be more of a boon across the country while the Conservatives have been more effective at supporting the capital. Perhaps more surprising is that the party traditionally associated with benefiting the private sector (Conservatives) has put more emphasis on homes for local authorities and housing associations while Labour, who are touted as the party of the working class, have focused on private sector housing. These differences, your location, the type of ownership, should all play an important role in helping you to decide who to vote for if you want to see more support for the property sector.
YouGov UK: Which political party would be the best at handling housing?
Now that we’ve taken a brief look at what’s occurred over the last decade or so, it’s time to look at the current climate. This is a tricky task given the disruption from COVID and experimental budget changes, but what we can do is look at the current sentiment as well as the reported policies that may affect the market.
First of all, it’s clear to many that the Conservative government has lost support with several disastrous years and divisive policies. This has already caused a shift in the latest YouGov findings with the tracker for Which political party would be the best at handling housing? Estimating that support for Labour’s property policies has gone up from 27% in 2019 to 37% in 2024.
By comparison, the Conservative party has lost a lot of support going from 21% in 2019 to 8% in 2024. The only party with a lower score in this particular question is the Lib Dems who have dropped from 14% in 2019 to less than 5% in 2024.
This shows that voter sentiment is with Labour on an important issue that influences a lot of votes.
What policies are each party offering?
So what policies have these parties brought to the table?
Labour:
- Building 150,000 social homes annually
- Investment in public housing
- Rent controls and tenant protections
- Affordable homeownership schemes
- Stringent build warranties
Labour plan to focus on a renewed investment in public housing, as well as more securities and protections for renters and first-time buyers. This approach is one that looks to increase the availability of affordable housing to reduce the strain on private rentals, which should lead to lower, more affordable rents. The added focus on building warranties is also designed to help protect investments and ensure buildings are built to a high standard.
However, critics of this plan will note that this plan may scare off private investors and landlords which could lead to fewer options for rent and lower quality. Additionally, 150,000 homes a year is a massive number and the burden for their construction could lead to changes to taxes in future budgets.
Conservatives:
- Planning reforms
- Brownfield development
- Homeownership initiatives
- Private sector incentives
- Build warranties
The Conservatives look to focus on supporting private developers through a series of deregulation exercises and incentives. These reforms are aimed at streamlining the process of development and freeing up brownland spaces to allow for more homes to be built without impacting the greenbelt. This plan does share some similarities with Labours, as the Conservatives also plan to focus on building warranties and initiatives for people entering the market.
Critics of this plan however worry that without control over the types of properties built, it could lead to a glut of expensive homes that nobody on lower incomes can afford to buy. There is also a limited amount of brownfield development space available too, which has led to people asking if this is enough to meet the number of homes required.
It seems that at the end of the day, these policies focus on two different core areas. The Labour party are looking to provide a boost to social housing and new buyer opportunities while the Conservatives believe that freeing up capital and investment opportunities will lead to a type of trickle down UK property market.
Watsons Property: Invested In Property Since 1890
As a business that thrives on surveys, valuations, estate agency, lettings, and block management, our industry is influenced by the policies and actions of the UK Government. We are committed to providing a service that informs our customers and gives them transparent information on the value of their property. This is why we think it’s so important to cut through the noise of the general election to see which party offers the best policies for the UK property market. If you need a hand understanding surveys and valuations, or would like to know more about what we can offer, please contact our team today to find out more.
